Probability

What makes conspiracy theories improbable?

Comments

I think the more interesting question is what makes wildlyimplausible conspiracy theories seem plausible to so many. I think that part ofthe problem is that it takes some specialized training to be able to compute probabilitiesaccurately, and most without that training tend to overestimate how likely itis that a complicated conspiracy really occurred, and I think that part of the problemis that many do not have adequate accounts of how one event might or might notexplain another.

I don’t think, however, that these “philosophical” issueswhy so many find those implausible theories highly intriguing – I imagine thereis are interesting sociological , psychological, and political explanation forthis, and I hope that other panelists may be able to say more.

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