I have a question about probability (and baseball). Say that a hitter has consistently hit .300 for many years. Now, suppose that he begins a new season in a slump, and hits only .200 for the first half; should we infer that he will hit well above .300 for the second half (and so finish with the year-end .300 average we have reason to expect of him), or would this be an instance of the gambler's fallacy?
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