The reason that Pascal's Wager doesn't seem convincing to me is that to me it seems that you can't assign a probability to something that doesn't have any empirical evidence. So all gods seems equally improbable. And so I would be equally likely to suffer eternal torture if I chose Islam, Mormonism or nothing. Although on further thought, I don't feel so sure any more, largely because of the same reasoning that lead me to the question I'm about to ask.
But, after I read the thought experiment "Roko's Basilisk," it seems to me that you could also make a Pascal's Wager-style proposition without metaphysical claims, one that would involve probabilities. Something along the lines of this:
Biologists know a lot about the human body.
Those that know a lot about the human body are more likely to have the capabilities to torture me for eternity.
Those that are more likely to have the capabilities to torture me for eternity are more likely to torture me for eternity.
If I go spend time near biologists it is becomes more likely that I will be tortured for eternity.
I ought to minimize my chances of eternal torture.
Therefore I ought to avoid biologists.
So then you might say "If you fervently try to avoid biologists, they will be more likely to pick you, because that is how sociopaths function, and a biologist who would torture you would surely be a sociopath". So then I should spend more time around biologists? Even if you say, I should act normally to have the smallest chance of getting picked, it still seems weird to do anything *because* of something that has such a small probabilty and for which there is so little evidence that supports it. I just seems like, that once you have any evidence at all, there is always a larger probability of eternal torture for some choice.
Of course all this seems absurd, but there is still some internal conflict within me, and I am feeling very uneasy, because the premises seem acceptable. Eternal torture seems like it's worth minimizing the chances of, no matter what, and I don't want to throw my life away, hiding on the North Pole, or following whatever course of action that would seem to have the lowest probability of eternal torture.
Any help you'd be willing to provide would be greatly appreciated.