Topics Logic

Question I was loading up to go on a trip the other day and asked my Dad why he was taking a lot of extra stuff and he said: "Just in case the unexpected happens." So out of that comes my question: If you expect the unexpected, then doesn't that make the unexpected expected and the expected unexpected?

Accepted:
October 9, 2005

Comments

Even if you expect the unexpected, you may still be surprised. I took my Swiss Army knife along, because I expected the unexpected, but I was still surprised when I had to use it to free a hedgehog that got itself locked in the glove compartment of my car. People who believe that life is full of suprises are often right.

When someone says "I expect the unexpected" we might hear that alongthe lines of "I fathered someone fatherless". That is, we mightinterpret him as meaning that he expects some event which he also doesnot expect. That does seem like a contradiction. But isn't that tomisunderstand what he's trying to say? What he expects is not someevent (which he also doesn't expect); rather, what he expects is thathe doesn't expect some event. His expectation applies not to some eventitself but rather to his non-expectation of some event. What he expectsis that there will be some event that he does not expect. Thisexpectation is a second-order expectation: it applies to hisfirst-order non-expectation of some event. (My expectation that a credit card billwill soon arrive is a first-order expectation. My expectation that Melanie will expect me to pay for dinner is a second-order expectation. See herefor a similar distinction.) That's why, as Peter Liptonsays, "Even if you expect the unexpected, you may still be surprised":what surprises you and what you expected are different things. You'resurprised by the fact that there is a hedgehog in your glove compartment (are you serious,Peter?), but not surprised by the fact that something surprised you.