Probability
Recently, Nate Silver won acclaim by correctly predicting the electoral results for all fifty states. If one of Silver's predictions had failed, however, would that have shown that he was wrong? I mean, I take it that Silver's predictions amount to assignments of probability to different outcomes. Suppose that I claim that an ordinary coin has a 50% chance of landing head or tails. If a trial is then run in which the coin lands tails three times in a row, we wouldn't take this to mean that I was wrong. Along similar lines, then, would it not have been possible for literally all of Silver's predictions to have failed and yet still be correct?
Accepted:January 31, 2013
Accepted:
January 31, 2013